5 Factors Shaping the Geopolitical Space Race Between Superpowers

US military generals have dropped the diplomatic language about space warfare. They're now talking openly about the need to launch weapons from, within, and toward space in any future conflict with Russia or China. Gone are the days of simply discussing "space dominance" – the reality of satellite destruction in orbit is now front and center in military planning.

This shift reflects a harder truth: space has become the next battlefield. And 2026 looks like a pivotal year for this growing competition across five key areas.

Trump's Golden Dome Defense Shield

President Trump's plan to build a missile defense system called the "Golden Dome" to protect America represents a major expansion of current capabilities. Much of this project builds on existing efforts to detect, track, and intercept drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles aimed at the US. But Trump's vision goes much further.

The big questions for 2026: Will Trump order new interceptor missiles beyond those currently stationed in Alaska and California? Will he move forward with plans for space-based laser weapons? Both would cost enormous amounts of money. Trump's proposed 2026 budget includes a 40% increase for the US Space Force, which he created during his first term. This kind of spending boost would likely require cuts elsewhere.

Elon Musk's Starship Progress

Elon Musk, SpaceX owner and former close Trump advisor, claims his Starship rocket – the most powerful ever built – will make its first trip to Mars in 2026, though without crew. This timeline seems unlikely, but Starship's success could have major implications for both America's civilian space program and military ambitions.

The rocket's massive cargo capacity matters for space warfare. If a conflict destroys satellites, America would be much better positioned to replace its losses quickly if Starship works reliably. But the strained relationship between Musk and Trump could complicate things.

Russia's Nuclear Space Weapon Threat

In 2024, the US government warned that Moscow was developing a nuclear space weapon capable of destroying large numbers of satellites in low Earth orbit all at once. Such a weapon would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which bans weapons of mass destruction in orbit.

The Russian satellite Cosmos 2553, launched in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, has drawn particular suspicion. Intelligence suggests it carries a dummy warhead rather than an actual nuclear bomb, but Western agencies are watching closely to see if Russia continues testing this system.

More Countries Join the Space War Game

In 2025, Britain announced for the first time that it would build "counter-space" capabilities – a term covering kinetic and electronic methods to attack or disable satellites. France recently conducted "rendezvous and proximity operations" with the US against a suspected Russian satellite, bringing spacecraft dangerously close together in maneuvers that could be used offensively in conflict.

America and China have also performed similar maneuvers near each other's satellites. Military forces are clearly thinking seriously about space combat, and more of these orbital chess games are expected.

Private Companies Change the Space Surveillance Game

New technologies and companies are breaking into space warfare, just as they have in ground combat. Space surveillance – monitoring objects and their movements in space – used to be expensive and require powerful radars. But private companies are increasingly capable of tracking satellites.

American company Maxar uses satellites to photograph Earth from orbit. Now it's also turning its cameras toward other satellites, producing remarkably clear images of Chinese and other spacecraft that were once the exclusive domain of spy agencies.

Another company, Slingshot Aerospace, operates a network of 150 telescopes to track satellites. When the Russian Cosmos 2553 briefly left its orbit in April 2025, the company's sensors tracked its path.

Military competition in space grows more intense each year. But at least it's becoming slightly more transparent, as private companies provide new ways to watch what's happening above our heads. The question isn't whether space will become a battlefield – it's how quickly that transformation will happen.