Washington Urged to Pressure Israel to Accept Gaza Ceasefire Proposal

Regional Powers Push Back as Israel Prepares Gaza City Offensive Despite Ceasefire Proposal

Egypt and Qatar are intensifying diplomatic pressure on the United States to force Israel's acceptance of a 60-day ceasefire proposal, even as Israeli forces mobilize 60,000 reserve troops for what appears to be an imminent full-scale assault on Gaza City. The timing reveals a critical disconnect between regional diplomatic efforts and Israel's military escalation, threatening to collapse months of mediation work just as a comprehensive hostage exchange deal seemed within reach.

The Diplomatic Race Against Military Escalation

Arab and Islamic nations are coordinating a unified front to support the latest ceasefire framework, which would halt military operations for 60 days while facilitating immediate negotiations for a comprehensive prisoner-hostage exchange. The proposal represents the most concrete pathway to de-escalation since the conflict began, yet it faces a narrow window as Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has already approved military plans for Gaza City.

The mediators' urgency stems from Israel's systematic encirclement of Gaza City through recent advances in Jabalia, Zeitoun, and Sabra neighborhoods. This tactical positioning suggests Israel views military pressure as leverage in negotiations rather than pursuing ceasefire talks in good faith.

Strategic Implications for Regional Stability

Regional sources express particular concern that Israeli occupation of Gaza City and central Gaza would permanently derail any political solution. This assessment reflects lessons learned from previous Middle Eastern conflicts where territorial gains during negotiations created irreversible facts on the ground.

The mobilization of 60,000 reserve troops signals Israel's preparation for urban warfare operations that could last months, fundamentally altering the conflict's trajectory. Such an escalation would likely trigger broader regional responses, potentially drawing in Iran-backed groups across multiple fronts.

Internal Israeli Politics Complicate Ceasefire Prospects

Tonight's Israeli Cabinet meeting will formally vote on the Egyptian proposal, but the outcome faces significant internal obstacles. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir are expected to oppose any deal, reflecting the far-right coalition's preference for military solutions over negotiated settlements.

This dynamic mirrors patterns seen in previous Israeli governments where extremist coalition partners wielded disproportionate influence over war-and-peace decisions. The families of Israeli hostages support the deal, creating domestic pressure that could override hardline opposition, but only if Prime Minister Netanyahu chooses confrontation with his coalition partners.

The Broader Diplomatic Architecture

Egypt and Qatar's coordinated approach with European Union partners represents a more sophisticated mediation strategy than previous ceasefire attempts. By engaging both Washington and Brussels simultaneously, the mediators are creating multiple pressure points on Israeli decision-making.

However, the effectiveness of this approach depends heavily on American willingness to apply meaningful leverage. Previous ceasefire negotiations have foundered when the US provided diplomatic cover for Israeli military operations rather than constraining them.

Market and Economic Ramifications

The prospect of prolonged urban warfare in Gaza City would likely sustain elevated oil prices and regional economic uncertainty through the first quarter of 2024. Defense contractors may benefit from expanded Israeli military procurement, but broader Middle Eastern markets face continued volatility as long as escalation risks remain high.

More significantly, failure of this diplomatic initiative could signal the collapse of the traditional Arab-Israeli mediation framework, potentially reshaping regional alliance structures and forcing Gulf states to recalibrate their normalization strategies with Israel.

The Critical 48-Hour Window

The next two days will likely determine whether diplomatic mediation can still constrain military escalation in the Middle East. If Israel proceeds with the Gaza City offensive while rejecting the 60-day ceasefire, it would mark a decisive shift toward prolonged regional conflict over negotiated settlement.

For the Biden administration, this moment represents a crucial test of American influence in the region. Failure to secure Israeli compliance with the ceasefire proposal would demonstrate the limits of US leverage over its closest Middle Eastern ally, with implications extending far beyond the current Gaza conflict.