Ukraine Military Aid Set to Plummet by 2025, Forecasts Suggest

Military aid to Ukraine is heading for its lowest levels since Russia's invasion began, according to new research from Germany's Kiel Institute. The problem isn't just that the US has stopped sending weapons — European countries, which now provide most of the support, are also cutting back their contributions significantly.

Christoph Trebesch, who leads the institute's research team, says the numbers tell a clear story. "Based on data through October, Europe hasn't been able to send aid at the same pace as in the first half of 2025," he explained. If this slowdown continues, 2025 will mark the year with the lowest level of new aid to Ukraine since the war started in February 2022.

The Kiel Institute tracks all military, financial, and humanitarian aid promised to Ukraine since Russia's invasion. Before President Donald Trump returned to the White House and halted US assistance in early 2025, Washington was providing more than half of all support. European countries initially stepped up to fill that gap, but their contributions have been dropping since summer began.

Here's where the numbers get concerning for Ukraine. During the first 10 months of 2025, allies allocated 32.5 billion euros in military aid, with Europe providing most of it. But to even match the lowest annual amount from 2022 — which was 37.6 billion euros — Ukraine's supporters need to commit more than 5 billion euros in just two months. To reach the average annual support of 41.6 billion euros from 2022-2024, they'd need over 9 billion euros.

This funding shortfall comes at a critical time for Ukraine's war effort. The country has been heavily dependent on Western weapons and equipment to defend against Russia's ongoing offensive. European governments are facing their own budget pressures and public skepticism about prolonged military spending, making it harder to maintain previous aid levels.

The timing is particularly challenging because Ukraine needs consistent weapon supplies and ammunition to maintain its defensive positions. Any significant reduction in military support could shift the balance on the battlefield, potentially forcing Ukraine into a weaker negotiating position if peace talks emerge.