The Possibility of War with Russia Worries 51% of Europeans, Survey Reveals

A new poll across nine European Union countries reveals that 51% of Europeans believe there's a high risk of war with Russia in the coming years. The survey, conducted by Cluster 17 for French magazine Le Grand Continent, interviewed 9,553 people in late November and shows how the ongoing Ukraine conflict has shifted European perceptions about their own security.

The poll covered France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands, with over 1,000 participants from each country. The central question asked whether Russia could wage war against their country in the coming years.

Geography clearly shapes these fears. Poland, which borders both Russia and its ally Belarus, showed the highest anxiety levels with 77% of respondents seeing a high or very high risk of conflict. France followed at 54%, while Germany registered 51%.

Italy stands out as an outlier. Despite being part of NATO and the EU, 65% of Italian respondents viewed the risk as low or nonexistent. This suggests different threat perceptions even within the same alliance structure.

The poll also tested attitudes toward China, finding that 81% of Europeans don't expect a war with Beijing in the near future. This stark difference highlights how the Ukraine war has specifically heightened concerns about Russian aggression rather than creating general war anxiety.

But here's where it gets concerning for European policymakers: 69% of respondents doubt their countries could defend themselves against Russian aggression. They see their military capabilities as either "completely unable" or "rather unable" to handle a Russian attack.

This confidence gap matters because it could influence public support for defense spending and NATO commitments. European governments have been pushing to increase military budgets since Russia invaded Ukraine, but public skepticism about their own capabilities might complicate these efforts.

The timing of this poll is significant. It comes as European leaders debate how much military aid to send Ukraine and whether to allow Ukrainian forces to use Western weapons against targets inside Russia. Public fear of direct conflict could pressure governments to be more cautious in their support.

For investors and markets, these findings suggest continued high defense spending across Europe. Countries that feel vulnerable typically increase military budgets, and public pressure could accelerate this trend. Defense contractors and cybersecurity firms operating in Europe might see sustained demand.

The poll results also reflect a broader shift in European strategic thinking. For decades after the Cold War, most Europeans saw major power conflict as unlikely. The Ukraine war changed that calculation, and these numbers show how quickly public opinion can shift when geopolitical realities change.